Light at the End of the Tunnel
A Promising Recovery Still Dictates Caution in Career Moves.
Courtesy of Chefs' Professional AgencyWe have been through the bleakest period of employment in the restaurant industry that I have experienced in nearly twenty-five years in the job market. When I say we have been through it, I do not mean that it is over, but that we have bottomed out, jobs and business and jobs are returning slowly.
What happened: Restaurants found themselves at the bottom of the economic food chain: Unavailability of credit forced all kinds of businesses to reduce staff costs or close. Meetings and business meals were reduced, real or anticipated financial difficulties kept diners out of restaurants. Hotels lost meeting income, diners tended away from high end restaurants to affordable neighborhood locations. Investors withdrew promises for opening restaurants, and restaurants built in rapid growth communities found their customer based decimated by home foreclosures and mortgage spikes. Restaurants tightened their belts by reducing personnel costs. Some closed.
While many surviving restaurants began to focus on value, others closed. As the credit crunch hit the Food and Beverage Industry, there were fewer openings to replace the usual business attrition, so lost jobs were not replaced by new ones, as they would be in a sound economy. .
As job openings were removed from the market, smart and qualified staff made the decision to shelter in place, eliminating job opportunities due to the usual the circulation of staff leaving one job to seek another. Picture it as a game of musical chairs in which seats are continually removed, but most of the players refuse to stand up when the music stops.
Whats happening now: Nobody really seems to know, but the stock market is up and the future shows promise. although some predict a W recession, which will provide us with another dip, it appears that we are just tired of feeling down on our luck and emotionally ready for an upturn. Diners are getting tired of takeout and those who have been holding back even though they have jobs are now getting tired of self deprival. With rents negotiable, properties available and some closings leaving potentially profitable voids in communities, entrepreneurs are beginning to consider new openings. Credit is once again becoming available to existing businesses, which will eventually produce salaries on which people will again dine out, so some restaurants are beginning to staff up. Restaurants are beginning to react to the potential of an available customer base by staffing up slowly, although some of this is seasonal.
The environment for new restaurants, furthermore, is about as good as it has ever been. New openings are just beginning to populate the restaurant blogs, but they do exist and established companies are starting to plan expansions to take advantage of favorable government programs and lowered entry costs for new properties. While its doubtful that most of the American public will return to the lavish pre-recession excesses, it does seem to be relaxing its purse strings.
What it means to you: Assuming that you have handled your career sensibly, not held out for irrational employment conditions, and have managed to stay in the industry, you can begin, but only begin, to consider changing positions. There will be a few good opportunities out there, but caution is still necessary. Remember at all times that a new position is always less secure than an existing job, and that leaving a sure thing can end up with no job at a time when there is very limited choice on the market. The first to profit will be those who are still in a learning curve, and those who were the canaries in the coal mine, the pastry people, as owners feel comfortable in staffing up to meet demand.
Remember, though, that any new job is likely to be less secure than one you have held for a year or more, and the choice of alternates if a new situation does not work out will still be extremely limited. That means that you should be cautious in your career choices.
The spectrum of restaurants hiring this job hunting season is fairly narrow, including many more casual or casualized locations. There are fewer Michelin style restaurant requiring a large staff to produce exquisite creations. Even the most prestigious restaurants are focusing on more affordable and approachable menu items obtainable with smaller crews. Changing jobs in the noble leagues is more of a challenge than to those locations with more relaxed offerings.
This season and probably the coming two years will not see the kind of dream compensation chefs were able to command two years ago. 401 K plans are still rare. While there is not an enormous pool of top chefs and highly qualified staff willing to take on the available positions, there are enough adequately talented professionals available to make the job pool a "buyer's market". A position which should pay $80K now pays $80K, not $110K.
here will be job career choices for a bit yet. You probably won't see more than three or so opportunities in a one month search, if that. Security should be a prime factor in making a job change decision. Some of the new opportunities we expect in the coming year will be with established companies, which generally guarantee more stability, while others will be with untried companies, which offer both more satisfying challenges and less job security.
Since every job you accept should be done with an absolute minimum committment of one year, you will need to decide if any position offered you can be satisfactory for that long. Employers are nervous about hiring overqualified individuals, because they fear they will leave early. Whether to accept a job for which you consider yourself overqualified or not is a decision you need to make with a view to the next year. We don't think that jobs will flood back for about that long.
A few kitchens are making one last try to keep alive. Beware of the property which suggests that you are the person who can turn them around after a lack of success or recognition during the past years. (Common sense question: Why didnt they act to turn the property around sooner, with so many qualified people available?) If you are one of those people who accepted something you consider below your dignity, for instance a chef who accepted a sous chef, consider the need for commitment. As you move on, you will be competing with people who by having stuck it out have added the stability to their resumes sought by most employers. If you have six months or less than a year at your current stint, staying there to complete at least a year may be your best option.
Should you be one of the managers who gave up bonuses or pay to keep the business afloat, this may be a good time to readdress the issue of compensation with your employers, but waiting a few months may be better
Its still a good time to consider opening your own, as long as it is not a cupcake shop.
Modesty remains writ large on menus. Someday culinary degenerates will once again demand towers of intricately placed gustatory trinkets garnished with heavy metal, diamond dust and artistic frippery, but the current and foreseeable trend is down-market, comfort, bistro, sustainable and perceived value. Fine dining is by no means dead, but the demand is limited. Build it, if you will, but they will only come if it is fairly comforting and non-threatening, which doesnt mean that it neednt be created for flavor and with professional rigor. Quality of product and preparation and flavor have replaced outrageous innovation. Conspicuous consumption is out. Fewer people are dropping mind boggling sums for the name or the prestige of a meal.
Hiring authorities are also more impressed by modesty than by splashy presentation. As a luxury marketing expert recently noted sadly, Americans are beginning to shop with their heads.. This goes for management looking for staff, too. Over the top presentations are decidedly out that includes most You Tube presentations, resumes which declare your exceptional talents in the third person, Chef Jonas realized his passion at the age of three when he prepared his first foie gelato, and over the top demands in interviews. Professionals with strong skills and good palates are in. But then, that never changes.
For those of you building your skills and looking to the future: Continue to seek your positions based on reputation, quality and professional policies of the place rather than flattery by the owners, compensation or title. Find good chefs or dining room managers and stay with them. Dont change a cooks job at Grammercy for a sous job at Joes French Joint, unless Joes French Joint offers the same professional environment as Grammercy.
If you have stepped back to pay the rent, theres abundant good news. First of all, this is one of the rare points in history where you will not have to explain leaving a chef job for that of a sous chef. Chefs jobs will be available. Your time in the trenches might actually prove an advantage. You will probably be able to advance again, depending on the nature of the job. If you have left great restaurants for say clubs or food service opportunities, be aware that you have not been subject to the rigor of a top kitchen, and you will probably need to accept a position no higher than that you left, possibly lower. Its worth it.
Geography is still a touchy issue, job wise. Young cooks, sous chefs can risk a move, but established chefs will probably find that staying near to home is a good plan for the time being. Caution is part of the new hiring mode, and fewer employers are prepared to hire people at a distance. This is still a bad time to set terms for job change to a particular part of the country. I want to be in Hawaii/San Francisco/Upstate New York by February is not realistic.
We wish you all good luck and patience. Things are somewhat improved and the world is slowly coming back into its orbit.